Hungarians overwhelmingly reject Ukraine being admitted into the EU, and this could hurt the anti-Orbán opposition, which is backing Ukraine and its aspirations to join the EU.

A recent survey by Hungary’s Nézőpont Institute indicates a growing rejection of Ukraine’s potential European Union membership among the Hungarian populace. The proportion of those opposing accession has risen from 62 percent in April to 67 percent, while support has declined from 29 percent to 23 percent.

This trend persists despite efforts by Péter Magyar, chairman of the Tisza Party, which is affiliated with the European People’s Party (EPP) in the EU parliament, who has initiated a signature collection campaign advocating for Ukraine’s EU accession. Pro-Ukrainian sentiment has also seen increased promotion in Hungary recently. Magyar is widely expected to face off against Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in national elections next year.

However, Hungarians have long been one of the most skeptical nations of Ukraine. For one, the cost of integrating Ukraine would be enormous. At the same time, Brussels has also locked Hungary out of billions in funding, while sending tens of billions to Ukraine, which is not an EU member.

There are also worries that cheap agricultural products from Ukraine would flood the European market if Ukraine gains membership, which would not only cripple many Hungarian farmers but also farmers across the EU. There are also concerns about a reduction in agricultural subsidies for Hungarian farmers, and the influx of genetically modified goods, according to Hungarian news outlet Mandiner.

There is also the long history of Ukraine discriminating against its Hungarian minority population, including restricting language rights.

In short, the debate surrounding Ukraine’s EU membership is polarizing Hungarian public opinion, but generally in the direction of opposition to Ukraine joining. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán asserts that while he would support Ukraine’s membership if it benefited Hungarians, he argues that the current terms would be detrimental to Hungary.

In contrast, Péter Magyar actively champions Ukraine’s accession.

This appears to be a losing issue for Magyar, but his support may be more geared towards Brussels than Hungary. With his continued support for Ukraine, he is signaling to his backers that he will abandon Orbán’s stance on Ukraine, which, in turn, could mean more money for Magyar from international donors and assure continued pressure on Orbán from Brussels.

In early March, Orbán announced a national consultation (referendum) allowing Hungarian citizens to express their views on Ukraine’s EU membership, which will run until June 20. As of mid-May, data from the Nézőpont Institute shows that approximately 5.2 million Hungarian respondents indicated their rejection of Ukraine’s EU accession, an increase of over 300,000 from the previous month. This signifies that the group opposing accession now represents over two-thirds of the voting-age population.